Malahide, IRELAND — Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration, a little more than a month ago, it has grown more apparent to me that Ireland, my country, is starting to face a precarious position in the world and a volatile situation between our closest links, America and the European Union.
Trump’s accession to his previously occupied office has opened the door to more authoritarian right-wing positions becoming a more legitimate alternative to democracy across Europe, particularly in the big players of the European Union – France and Germany – who both have prominent far-right movements.
In France, the extreme right is the National Rally party and in Germany, the Alternative for Deutschland.
But the prevailing trends across Europe have seemingly missed Ireland, placing us in a unique position. Our last general election in late November 2024 resulted in the incumbent center-right parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remaining in a comfortable position to govern in a coalition once again.
Although a disappointment to many, including myself, it revealed a silver-lining. The center has held firm and the local far-right – a patchwork of various far-right parties in an electoral alliance – was comprehensively rejected by the people, not winning a single seat in the Oireachtas, our national parliament.
Ireland is not your typical European country. There is no traditional left-right political divide seen in more prominent countries like Britain, France or Germany.
The political scene has long been dominated by the center-right Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parties born out of the 1922-1923 Irish Civil War over the acceptance of the Anglo-Irish Treaty. That was negotiated after our brutal and attritional war of independence from 1919-1921.
The Anglo-Irish Treaty would secure 26 counties of Ireland as the self-governing “Irish Free State” dominion within the British Empire. The northern six counties, with a majority population of pro-Union descendants of British Protestant settlers, would have the choice to remain in the United Kingdom, which they did choose.
This treaty was supported by the parties that would eventually become Fine Gael and rejected by those who would form the republican Fianna Fáil.
But since the implementation of the 1937 constitution – introduced by a Fianna Fáil government which at last achieved the dream of a republic on the island of Ireland – Fianna Fáil has comfortably dominated Ireland and overseen it as an agrarian and Catholic church-dominated nation before transitioning to the modern and international one. This change took place by 1973, when we joined the European Economic Community, the entity that would go on to become the European Union.
Fast-forward to today. The practical lines between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have blurred. Both parties are pro-European and are committed to the existence of liberal democracy. Both are comfortable enough to form a joint mandate to govern Ireland.
But back to the affairs now facing Ireland.
The new policy of aggressive tariffs Trump introduced significantly threatens Ireland due to our globalized economic model which can essentially be boiled down to two simple terms: American capital and European labor.
Ireland is the premier choice for multinationals to base their operations in the European Union, thanks to our low corporate tax and English being the primary language. These conditions were especially attractive for U.S. businesses, particularly Amazon, Apple, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and Pfizer.
There should be no wonder why Ireland is commonly known as the “Gateway to Europe” for U.S. businesses when taking these facts into account.
These American multinationals are significant contributors to the Irish economy. According to the Irish Central Statistics Office, these American firms employ 300,000 people in Ireland, or almost 11% of the nearly 3 million people working in Ireland. They produced €73 billion in exports to America last year, nearly a third of Ireland’s exports.
According to The Irish Times, American firms dominate our tech and pharmaceutical sectors, the latter of which is responsible for the largest share of Ireland’s exports.
Trump has already begun to place Ireland in his sights by threatening 25% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, threatening the stability of Pfizer and the pharmaceutical sector in Ireland.
If Trump continues these aggressive maneuvers, Ireland will have to take significant steps to plan and protect the established economic model which is dominated by foreign investment from America.
Steps to appease America have already been taken, notably in the proposed Occupied Territories Bill, which would ban the importation or sale of goods and services from occupied territories in Palestine, in accordance with the Geneva Convention.
Before the Irish general election, it seemed all parties were in common agreement to enact the bill, but with Trump’s inauguration and diplomatic pressuring, the incumbent government is making moves to potentially water it down. As initially proposed, the bill would impact over 1,000 U.S. companies currently operating in Ireland.
Among the potential amendments is to exclude services from the bans proposed by the bill. This would include companies like Airbnb which offer holiday accommodations in the West Bank. Ireland’s national broadcaster, RTÉ, quoted Conor O’Neill, head of policy for Christian Aid Ireland, saying that 70% of the trade between Ireland and the occupied territories is in the service industry.
Moving on from the Trans-Atlantic relationship, the rise of the far-right in Europe is piecing together a troubling image for Ireland as many of these far-right parties hold positions against the European Union and against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
In addition to its language and low tax rate bringing American firms, Ireland benefits from the European Single Market, which allows free trade between EU states. If the single market is weakened in any way by Eurosceptic parties across other European nations, Ireland will lose leverage over U.S. multinationals staying in Ireland, posing a major risk to the Irish export economy.
Additionally, Ireland is a member of the Eurozone, along with 19 other EU member states. If countries like Germany, the biggest economy in the EU, elect the popular AfD party with ambitions to leave the EU, it would severely reduce the power of the euro.
The Irish economy is firmly dependent on global trade, and I do not believe there is any way around this. We are not a big industrial country with rich natural resources; we are a small island in the Atlantic Ocean devoid of resources, with little practicality in pursuing self-sufficiency.
While not in NATO, we are safely protected by the NATO defense umbrella. To the west, we have the Atlantic Ocean and America and to the east, the EU and NATO states.
Whether intentionally or not, these circumstances have left the Irish Defence Force (Óglaigh na hÉireann) woefully underfunded.
Ireland lacks a military grade radar system and jet fighters. Instead, the British Royal Air Force is allowed to police Irish airspace when permitted.
Our territorial waters are also vulnerable, as our Irish Naval Service is lacking, with only eight ships to protect our coastline and large exclusive economic zone.
The integrity of NATO appears to be at risk with the U.S. returning to isolation as well as rising far-right parties advocating for the withdrawal of their respective nations from the alliance.
To put it in short, the Irish economy is under threat from Trump’s isolationist foreign policy, a rising far-right influence in Europe, and an unprepared army at risk of losing its security umbrella conveniently provided by NATO.
While I’m confident liberal democracy will prevail here at home, I am unsure how effectively we can adjust to the changing world order and stay balanced on the edge of the Atlantic.
Kris Somers is a Junior Reporter with Youth Journalism International.
